Pipeline coverage calculator

Find out in a minute whether your open pipeline is big enough to hit this period's target.

How to use the pipeline coverage calculator

Fill in four boxes:

1. Sales target for the period (a month, quarter or year).
2. Revenue already closed in that period.
3. Open pipeline value: the total value of deals still in play.
4. Expected win rate as a percentage.

You get your coverage ratio (shown as something like "3.2x"), the remaining target, the pipeline you need and the gap. If you have enough pipeline, the gap reads "Covered". If closed revenue already meets the target, the ratio reads "Target met".

Use the win rate you actually see on deals like these, not the one you hope for. If you don't know it, what is win rate shows how to count it.

The formulas in plain words

• Remaining target = target − closed revenue.
• Coverage ratio = open pipeline ÷ remaining target.
• Pipeline you need = remaining target ÷ win rate.
• Gap = pipeline you need − open pipeline. If that is zero or negative, you're covered.

Note the link between the last two. At a 25% win rate you need 4x the remaining target in open pipeline. At 40% you need 2.5x. The ratio you should aim for is 1 ÷ win rate.

A worked example

Say a coatings distributor targets $1,200,000 for the quarter. It has closed $450,000 and has $2,100,000 in open pipeline. The team wins about 25% of deals.

• Remaining target: $1,200,000 − $450,000 = $750,000.
• Coverage ratio: $2,100,000 ÷ $750,000 = 2.8x.
• Pipeline needed: $750,000 ÷ 0.25 = $3,000,000.
• Gap: $3,000,000 − $2,100,000 = $900,000 short.

The pipeline looks big, and it still isn't enough. At 2.8x with a 25% win rate, the team would expect to close about $525,000 of the $750,000 it needs.

Now suppose the same team wins 40% of deals. It needs $750,000 ÷ 0.40 = $1,875,000, so $2,100,000 covers it.

What a good result looks like

A common rule of thumb is that teams want three to four times their remaining target in pipeline. Treat that as a starting point, not a law. The right number depends on your win rate, so use the one the calculator computes.

Two cautions:

• A high ratio built on stale deals is not coverage. Remove deals that haven't moved in months.
• Coverage drops as the period goes on. Check it weekly, not once a quarter.

How to improve your coverage

• Add pipeline early. Deals take time. If coverage is short with a month left, it's usually too late to fix by prospecting.
• Raise your win rate. Follow up on every quote and sample, and see where deals are lost.
• Clean the list. Move dead deals to lost so the ratio shows the truth.
• Look at it by stage. Value in late stages counts for more than value in early ones.

For the wider method, read how to run a weekly pipeline review and how to forecast sales. The idea itself is explained in what is pipeline coverage.

When to run the numbers

Run the calculator at the start of the period, at the midpoint and again with a few weeks left. At the start it tells you how much prospecting to plan. At the midpoint it shows whether you can still recover. Near the end it tells you which deals deserve the most attention.

If you sell physical products, remember that a deal often waits on a sample or a price approval. Pipeline that is stuck on a sample is not the same as pipeline that is ready to sign, so look at where the value sits before you trust the ratio.

Keep the inputs honest. Use the same definition of open pipeline every time, so the ratio is comparable week to week.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good pipeline coverage ratio?

Many sales teams use three to four times the remaining target as a rule of thumb. The better number is 1 divided by your win rate, which the calculator gives you as the pipeline you need.

Should I use the full target or the remaining target?

Use the remaining target. Revenue you've already closed doesn't need pipeline behind it. That's why the calculator subtracts it first.

Which deals count as open pipeline?

Count deals you're still actively working and could close in the period. Leave out anything that has gone quiet or has a close date outside the period.

What win rate should I enter?

Use the share of deals you win at this stage, taken from your own history. A sample-heavy business may win a different share from a repeat-order business, so use the figure that matches the deals in the pipeline.

What if the result says covered?

It means your open pipeline meets the need at your win rate. It doesn't promise the deals will close, so keep checking that they are moving.